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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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82–31 on winners spread MAE 8.4 113 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Florida @ Jacksonville	+0.2	144.7	56%	50–62	✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's	+0.4	131.5	48%	70–65	✗
Marist @ Manhattan	-7.5	133.1	21%	57–50	✓
Iona @ Rider	-0.1	144.5	47%	75–78	✗
Niagara @ Canisius	+0.8	141.4	56%	59–69	✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth	-7.1	131.9	27%	82–69	✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green	-4.0	152.2	39%	68–76	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	+0.6	142.8	44%	85–59	✗
Yale @ Cornell	+1.7	146.1	61%	62–65	✓
Princeton @ Harvard	-6.8	137.5	26%	66–53	✓
Brown @ Columbia	+2.5	139.6	57%	66–64	✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee	-3.7	153.9	38%	84–80	✓
Duquesne @ Fordham	-2.0	139.6	46%	67–79	✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac	+3.1	151.6	64%	85–81	✗
Nevada @ San José State	-11.1	137.5	17%	84–63	✓
Houston @ Baylor	-1.1	134.1	42%	82–76	✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse	+6.2	137.3	76%	85–88	✓
Hampton @ Northeastern	+10.3	144.8	86%	62–70	✓
Charleston @ Towson	-0.1	138.4	46%	72–56	✓
Indiana @ Penn State	+4.6	150.4	72%	74–83	✓
Missouri @ Arkansas	+5.3	147.6	80%	73–88	✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida	+14.1	154.6	88%	64–77	✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook	+7.1	143.1	79%	62–75	✓
Western Carolina @ VMI	-13.8	148.9	14%	84–51	✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel	-4.5	144.4	33%	62–71	✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire	+6.6	160.6	76%	86–68	✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell	+11.3	159.9	85%	95–104	✓
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky	+12.5	152.6	86%	82–95	✓
Washington @ Arizona	+15.7	166.6	87%	75–91	✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State	+15.1	142.4	90%	64–71	✓
Duke @ Wake Forest	+0.8	144.4	51%	79–83	✓
BYU @ Kansas State	-4.0	149.2	47%	74–84	✗
Boston College @ NC State	+3.7	148.3	71%	70–81	✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette	-1.1	141.6	42%	71–63	✓
East Carolina @ Rice	+0.2	138.5	44%	52–70	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop	+8.0	144.1	83%	74–83	✓
Longwood @ Radford	-0.4	141.9	49%	82–88	✗
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+5.7	150.1	75%	78–77	✗
High Point @ Charleston Southern	-9.5	148.0	18%	74–59	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth	+10.5	143.1	87%	67–83	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne	+4.7	152.2	66%	68–58	✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart	+0.3	142.9	52%	68–67	✗
Saint Francis @ Stonehill	+1.4	136.8	58%	63–72	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State	+8.9	141.3	79%	58–56	✗
Wofford @ Furman	+7.2	150.1	79%	67–82	✓
Texas State @ Georgia State	+2.4	138.9	62%	68–59	✗
NJIT @ Maine	+8.3	133.0	79%	58–68	✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota	-4.0	154.3	45%	76–77	✗
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	+1.5	144.2	64%	68–73	✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson	+4.5	158.1	70%	72–84	✓
Iowa @ Illinois	+10.0	166.5	82%	85–95	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts	+3.3	142.2	68%	75–67	✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan	+5.9	143.2	71%	72–91	✓
Cincinnati @ TCU	+4.2	146.2	72%	57–75	✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis	+2.2	161.9	69%	91–96	✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford	+12.1	148.7	85%	71–87	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State	+2.8	139.2	68%	72–77	✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington	+8.7	148.5	82%	78–89	✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss	+0.7	137.0	59%	72–59	✗
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+3.0	134.0	64%	60–88	✓
Troy @ UL Monroe	-6.7	144.6	26%	84–78	✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State	+5.4	157.5	69%	78–95	✓
North Carolina @ Virginia	-2.7	122.7	42%	54–44	✓
Alabama @ Kentucky	+0.1	188.4	41%	95–117	✓
Texas Tech @ UCF	+0.9	140.6	60%	61–75	✓
Morgan State @ Howard	+8.1	151.3	81%	72–78	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central	+8.7	137.9	83%	55–88	✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State	+2.2	138.9	67%	62–69	✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami	+8.8	144.8	80%	80–76	✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State	-2.5	139.3	42%	84–82	✓
UTSA @ North Texas	+16.0	137.3	84%	64–62	✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State	+10.1	142.7	87%	68–80	✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M	-3.4	132.6	45%	65–73	✗
Air Force @ New Mexico	+17.8	142.4	90%	78–77	✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-9.4	130.0	15%	68–66	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+0.1	131.8	47%	67–75	✓
Jackson State @ Alcorn State	+1.7	141.4	56%	73–87	✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls	+6.3	143.4	77%	70–85	✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine	-2.3	142.9	44%	70–82	✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+3.8	141.5	73%	61–63	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley	+3.8	137.5	76%	62–71	✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian	-9.2	143.8	24%	73–79	✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego	+0.4	141.4	50%	88–92	✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona	+2.4	136.9	59%	86–76	✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago	+0.4	134.6	56%	59–80	✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois	-4.6	148.1	32%	80–59	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer	-2.3	135.6	41%	72–86	✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois	+6.0	134.1	71%	76–82	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State	+1.7	137.9	57%	71–76	✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood	-8.8	145.3	17%	82–73	✓
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	+9.1	148.0	84%	67–77	✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian	-2.7	148.1	30%	86–73	✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State	-8.4	153.7	20%	82–72	✓
Oregon State @ Stanford	+7.8	146.6	78%	85–73	✗
James Madison @ Georgia Southern	-12.6	156.6	15%	80–74	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+19.4	144.2	90%	71–87	✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State	+5.3	132.7	72%	65–82	✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay	-0.3	149.8	49%	90–85	✓
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh	+4.4	140.5	74%	64–79	✓
Texas @ Kansas	+5.8	142.0	73%	67–86	✓
Auburn @ Georgia	-9.7	150.9	24%	97–76	✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa	-4.0	144.1	36%	77–91	✗
Missouri State @ Belmont	+2.7	150.3	72%	78–93	✓
Georgetown @ DePaul	-4.4	146.6	34%	77–76	✓
Davidson @ Richmond	+4.3	134.2	68%	63–66	✓
Yale @ Columbia	-5.2	138.6	26%	84–76	✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth	-14.8	132.9	12%	68–56	✓
App State @ Marshall	-4.1	147.5	35%	65–58	✓
Brown @ Cornell	+10.2	151.6	83%	78–74	✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U	+14.6	146.6	88%	56–84	✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International	-2.1	133.6	45%	77–75	✓
Grambling @ Southern	+4.5	132.7	64%	63–57	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+0.9	152.7	52%	59–72	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.