Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNI +105 DRKE -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +14 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | DRKE -4.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -2.6 (+16.6) | 147.9 (+20.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -4.0 (+18.0) | 144.1 (+23.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -2.1 (+16.1) | 146.7 (+21.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -1.9 (+15.9) | 148.9 (+19.1) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNI 75 – 53 DRKE |
| Feb 15, 2026 | UNI 86 – 62 DRKE |
| Feb 23, 2025 | DRKE 64 – 58 UNI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | DRKE 66 – 52 UNI |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DRKE 77 – 63 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | 10.8 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#120) | 2.11 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#124) | 2.53 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#107) | 0.615 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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