Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -470 DRKE +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -9.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -10.1 (+13.9) | 135.6 (+12.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -7.7 (+16.3) | 132.5 (+15.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -9.3 (+14.7) | 131.8 (+16.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -11.2 (+12.8) | 131.9 (+16.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNI 75 – 53 DRKE |
| Feb 23, 2025 | DRKE 64 – 58 UNI |
| Jan 30, 2025 | DRKE 66 – 52 UNI |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNI 91 – 77 DRKE |
| Jan 27, 2024 | DRKE 77 – 63 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#92) | -0.6 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#110) | -0.60 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#114) | -0.60 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#86) | 0.469 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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