Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -115 UCI -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +4 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -0.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -0.6 (+3.4) | 144.9 (+35.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -0.4 (+3.6) | 141.4 (+38.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -1.0 (+3.0) | 142.4 (+37.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -1.0 (+3.0) | 144.9 (+35.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UCSD 71 – 69 UCI |
| Jan 25, 2026 | UCI 61 – 59 UCSD |
| Mar 16, 2025 | UCSD 75 – 61 UCI |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCSD 85 – 67 UCI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCI 60 – 52 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-7 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#106) | 7.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#132) | 1.33 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#130) | 1.59 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#131) | 0.577 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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