Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UCI -105 UCSD -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +18 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UCI -1.8 (-19.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -2.2 (-20.2) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -2.5 (-20.5) | 143.8 (+8.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -3.8 (-21.8) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -3.0 (-21.0) | 142.8 (+9.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UCSD 71 – 69 UCI |
| Jan 25, 2026 | UCI 61 – 59 UCSD |
| Mar 16, 2025 | UCSD 75 – 61 UCI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCI 60 – 52 UCSD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UCSD 92 – 88 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCI | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 18-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 14-3 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#61) | 11.1 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#38) | 1.96 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#47) | 1.90 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#24) | 0.574 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCI | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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