Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -188 IU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -5.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -4.6 (+4.4) | 150.4 (+6.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -4.9 (+4.1) | 148.9 (+8.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -4.6 (+4.4) | 150.4 (+6.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -4.7 (+4.3) | 152.2 (+4.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | IU 113 – 72 PSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | IU 83 – 78 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | IU 77 – 71 PSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | IU 61 – 59 PSU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PSU 85 – 71 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#91) | 4.5 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | 1.25 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#107) | 1.53 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#155) | 0.545 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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