Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | IU -138 PSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -1.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -0.3 (+2.3) | 145.1 (-25.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -0.5 (+1.5) | 143.6 (-23.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -0.0 (+2.0) | 145.1 (-25.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.7 (+2.7) | 145.0 (-25.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | IU 113 – 72 PSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | IU 83 – 78 PSU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | IU 77 – 71 PSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | PSU 83 – 74 IU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | PSU 85 – 71 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#94) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#66) | 0.93 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#67) | 1.36 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#78) | 0.519 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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