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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
44–22 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
66 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.2 | 146.6 | 40% | 64–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.6 | 130.5 | 12% | 73–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 143.9 | 89% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 145.0 | 48% | 75–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 142.1 | 69% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 142.2 | 40% | 71–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 147.4 | 73% | 59–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 140.4 | 82% | 48–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 146.7 | 65% | 81–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 140.6 | 19% | 92–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 147.2 | 38% | 72–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 151.3 | 83% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 137.0 | 85% | 54–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 144.0 | 85% | 51–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 140.2 | 33% | 61–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.2 | 133.4 | 49% | 60–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.2 | 138.5 | 40% | 67–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.2 | 150.1 | 89% | 73–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 134.5 | 87% | 45–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 142.4 | 65% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 131.3 | 72% | 66–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.0 | 133.2 | 38% | 62–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 155.2 | 45% | 85–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 143.2 | 68% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 145.3 | 44% | 87–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 152.3 | 73% | 65–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 131.4 | 18% | 67–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 139.8 | 50% | 65–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 140.4 | 64% | 65–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.8 | 144.9 | 76% | 73–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.5 | 137.7 | 90% | 62–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.7 | 135.5 | 14% | 73–41 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 134.7 | 75% | 62–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.9 | 153.1 | 86% | 81–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 144.6 | 88% | 68–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.5 | 141.7 | 18% | 86–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 133.5 | 20% | 84–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 132.2 | 51% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.7 | 61% | 65–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 149.8 | 52% | 66–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 143.1 | 59% | 68–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 130.0 | 50% | 63–46 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 149.4 | 64% | 61–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 129.8 | 78% | 57–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.7 | 152.6 | 14% | 84–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 159.8 | 50% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.7 | 141.1 | 32% | 65–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 132.4 | 76% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 130.5 | 84% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 131.9 | 73% | 79–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 126.7 | 63% | 41–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 149.6 | 55% | 78–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 142.6 | 45% | 65–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.6 | 142.9 | 89% | 64–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 142.9 | 90% | 64–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 146.8 | 45% | 73–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 123.3 | 54% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 146.5 | 32% | 71–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 156.4 | 70% | 96–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 154.6 | 52% | 88–96 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 146.4 | 69% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 160.6 | 43% | 78–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.0 | 138.8 | 76% | 60–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 141.0 | 76% | 69–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 153.2 | 83% | 64–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 148.3 | 78% | 55–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.