You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Horizon League · Resch Center · February 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread YSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money GB +188 / YSU -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total GB win
Actual YSU +12 130 Lost
Massey YSU -2.9 (-9.1) — —
Massey Totals — 140.7 (-10.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 55% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 47% ✓
Baseline Plus ML YSU -2.0 (-10.0) 142.4 (-12.4) 40% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ YSU -4.6 (-7.4) 146.5 (-16.5) 32% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML YSU -1.7 (-10.3) 141.7 (-11.7) 44% ✓
Baseline ML YSU -2.1 (-9.9) 143.8 (-13.8) 43% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2026 GB 85 – 63 YSU
Jan 22, 2026 YSU 88 – 81 GB
Feb 23, 2025 YSU 81 – 77 GB
Jan 19, 2025 YSU 73 – 69 GB
Feb 10, 2024 GB 84 – 83 YSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GB YSU
Overall 18-14 22-10
Conference 13-7 14-6
Home 10-5 14-3
Away 8-8 8-7
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 68.6 78.4
Avg Pts Against 70.2 72.4
Massey -2.8 (#214) 3.4 (#123)
Bradley-Terry -0.13 (#185) 0.28 (#147)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.38 (#204) 0.45 (#143)
RPI 0.507 (#165) 0.520 (#134)
Shooting & Four Factors GB YSU
FG% 44.3% 43.5%
3PT% 34.6% 31.9%
REB / G 33.5 39.2
OREB / G 8.9 12.8
AST / TO 1.00 1.31
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 50.2%
TOV% 18.9% 15.2%
ORB% 28.0% 34.3%
FT Rate 20.6% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 14.1% 16.5%
DRB% 72.4% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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