Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | KC -163 OMA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | KC -3.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -2.8 (+2.2) | 144.2 (-23.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -2.8 (+2.2) | 142.4 (-21.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -2.7 (+2.3) | 145.8 (-24.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -2.8 (+2.2) | 146.0 (-25.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2026 | OMA 77 – 60 KC |
| Jan 4, 2026 | KC 73 – 66 OMA |
| Mar 7, 2025 | OMA 70 – 61 KC |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OMA 78 – 66 KC |
| Jan 9, 2025 | OMA 77 – 58 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#250) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#274) | -1.15 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#265) | -1.14 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#273) | 0.430 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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