That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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82–31 on winners spread MAE 8.4 113 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Jacksonville +0.1 142.6 49% 50–62 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +1.0 132.2 56% 70–65 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -8.1 132.3 20% 57–50 ✓
Iona @ Rider +0.5 144.5 50% 75–78 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius +1.0 142.7 56% 59–69 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth -4.8 131.2 32% 82–69 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green -1.7 153.4 43% 68–76 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +1.3 141.5 60% 85–59 ✗
Yale @ Cornell +3.3 148.2 69% 62–65 ✓
Princeton @ Harvard -6.1 138.6 25% 66–53 ✓
Brown @ Columbia +5.6 140.6 72% 66–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Milwaukee -2.3 154.8 38% 84–80 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham -3.3 136.8 33% 67–79 ✗
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +1.8 151.5 62% 85–81 ✗
Nevada @ San José State -11.1 138.1 15% 84–63 ✓
Houston @ Baylor -0.5 138.4 48% 82–76 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +6.6 135.0 75% 85–88 ✓
Hampton @ Northeastern +11.4 146.7 87% 62–70 ✓
Charleston @ Towson +0.3 136.2 50% 72–56 ✗
Indiana @ Penn State +4.9 148.9 69% 74–83 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +5.6 146.6 74% 73–88 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +16.0 153.7 89% 64–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Stony Brook +8.5 143.7 82% 62–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -15.4 146.0 13% 84–51 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -3.4 143.0 33% 62–71 ✗
UMBC @ New Hampshire +7.1 157.2 78% 86–68 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +8.7 158.9 82% 95–104 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky +11.9 150.0 87% 82–95 ✓
Washington @ Arizona +14.0 169.4 87% 75–91 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +17.2 144.7 91% 64–71 ✓
Duke @ Wake Forest +1.5 145.0 54% 79–83 ✓
BYU @ Kansas State -3.3 144.6 37% 74–84 ✗
Boston College @ NC State +4.0 150.3 69% 70–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette -0.0 140.1 49% 71–63 ✓
East Carolina @ Rice +0.6 139.5 53% 52–70 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop +9.2 142.9 83% 74–83 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +1.7 142.3 56% 82–88 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +6.8 149.3 77% 78–77 ✗
High Point @ Charleston Southern -9.8 148.6 17% 74–59 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth +12.1 144.1 88% 67–83 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +4.5 150.3 69% 68–58 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart -0.2 141.3 49% 68–67 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +0.7 133.9 51% 63–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +8.7 140.8 79% 58–56 ✗
Wofford @ Furman +5.0 147.4 72% 67–82 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia State +4.2 136.6 68% 68–59 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +8.4 129.8 79% 58–68 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -1.8 151.5 42% 76–77 ✗
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +2.3 144.5 64% 68–73 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Stetson +5.0 157.0 71% 72–84 ✓
Iowa @ Illinois +9.3 168.0 81% 85–95 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts +4.0 146.4 70% 75–67 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan +7.5 142.2 78% 72–91 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +4.7 146.4 70% 57–75 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +2.4 161.5 64% 91–96 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +13.6 149.4 88% 71–87 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State +3.1 141.4 67% 72–77 ✓
Utah Tech @ UT Arlington +9.0 147.6 82% 78–89 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +1.9 138.3 61% 72–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) +1.9 131.5 58% 60–88 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -4.6 144.3 34% 84–78 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +5.3 153.8 73% 78–95 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia -3.3 130.1 38% 54–44 ✓
Alabama @ Kentucky +0.1 175.6 47% 95–117 ✓
Texas Tech @ UCF +0.6 141.8 53% 61–75 ✓
Morgan State @ Howard +9.1 150.8 82% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +9.4 136.5 85% 55–88 ✓
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +1.8 138.5 61% 62–69 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +9.0 142.7 80% 80–76 ✗
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State -2.0 138.8 42% 84–82 ✓
UTSA @ North Texas +13.7 139.6 87% 64–62 ✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State +11.1 142.2 87% 68–80 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M -3.0 131.7 36% 65–73 ✗
Air Force @ New Mexico +17.2 144.8 90% 78–77 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -11.2 131.1 15% 68–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -0.0 132.2 47% 67–75 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +1.1 141.7 56% 73–87 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +6.9 141.6 78% 70–85 ✓
North Alabama @ Bellarmine -2.0 142.5 41% 70–82 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +3.3 143.0 65% 61–63 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley +3.4 134.8 69% 62–71 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Abilene Christian -9.5 144.2 19% 73–79 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego +1.0 142.4 53% 88–92 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +2.3 138.0 60% 86–76 ✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago +3.3 135.3 67% 59–80 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -2.9 147.8 37% 80–59 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -2.2 138.1 39% 72–86 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois +6.4 132.0 74% 76–82 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.1 139.1 62% 71–76 ✓
Little Rock @ Lindenwood -9.1 143.0 17% 82–73 ✓
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +9.7 146.9 84% 67–77 ✓
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -2.2 146.3 37% 86–73 ✓
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri State -7.8 152.4 20% 82–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +7.3 142.9 77% 85–73 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -14.0 154.7 14% 80–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese +19.9 146.6 91% 71–87 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +6.5 135.7 78% 65–82 ✓
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +1.6 151.9 56% 90–85 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh +3.8 143.3 69% 64–79 ✓
Texas @ Kansas +5.8 140.8 73% 67–86 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia -7.0 148.9 28% 97–76 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa -2.1 146.7 39% 77–91 ✗
Missouri State @ Belmont +4.6 149.4 73% 78–93 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -3.5 148.7 35% 77–76 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +6.6 133.1 73% 63–66 ✓
Yale @ Columbia -3.1 140.5 32% 84–76 ✓
Princeton @ Dartmouth -14.4 132.7 13% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Marshall -7.1 145.3 25% 65–58 ✓
Brown @ Cornell +12.0 150.1 87% 78–74 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U +14.8 145.2 89% 56–84 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International -1.9 134.7 41% 77–75 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +5.1 132.6 71% 63–57 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +0.2 150.9 48% 59–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.