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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–22 on winners spread MAE 9.7 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon @ California -1.4 146.4 44% 64–69 ✗
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State -12.8 129.0 13% 73–52 ✓
Elon @ Hofstra +13.7 141.3 88% 64–87 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Lamar +2.4 144.2 62% 75–61 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard +3.5 142.4 68% 70–74 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss -1.4 141.1 45% 71–82 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +4.2 144.5 66% 59–75 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +7.2 140.2 80% 48–65 ✓
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +4.2 147.0 66% 81–90 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming -6.9 143.2 27% 92–72 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee -5.3 144.6 32% 72–74 ✗
Florida State @ Clemson +9.5 148.5 82% 63–74 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +11.8 139.7 84% 54–78 ✓
Texas A&M @ Tennessee +13.5 144.1 87% 51–86 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -4.4 137.6 31% 61–73 ✗
Colorado State @ UNLV -0.4 135.5 49% 60–66 ✗
Charlotte @ Tulsa -1.7 136.7 43% 67–69 ✗
UIC @ Indiana State +14.0 148.8 88% 73–88 ✓
Illinois State @ Bradley +11.4 136.2 87% 45–48 ✓
Omaha @ Kansas City +2.8 144.2 64% 58–63 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +7.8 133.5 76% 66–63 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho State -3.5 138.1 31% 62–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +1.0 158.9 53% 85–76 ✗
Butler @ Seton Hall +3.9 141.8 70% 64–76 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU -0.8 145.1 52% 87–67 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +4.1 153.2 68% 65–89 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State -9.8 132.4 16% 67–58 ✓
Sam Houston @ UTEP +1.1 140.1 57% 65–54 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Fullerton +0.9 141.6 56% 65–60 ✗
Portland State @ Montana +7.0 145.9 78% 73–82 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +16.7 137.7 90% 62–88 ✓
San Diego State @ Fresno State -11.4 136.8 15% 73–41 ✓
USC @ UCLA +3.5 133.3 67% 62–56 ✗
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +12.5 150.8 86% 81–94 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +13.4 146.4 88% 68–92 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -9.5 143.1 17% 86–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -5.9 132.1 23% 84–78 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.1 134.2 50% 56–75 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +2.1 150.4 58% 65–73 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's -0.9 151.0 46% 66–80 ✗
SMU @ South Florida +0.3 141.1 52% 68–79 ✓
Maryland @ Rutgers +1.0 126.9 53% 63–46 ✗
Rhode Island @ La Salle +1.8 149.5 61% 61–84 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner +6.6 132.1 75% 57–72 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -12.9 153.3 15% 84–76 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis -0.9 160.8 46% 74–78 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -1.8 143.0 43% 65–53 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +5.7 133.4 72% 66–76 ✓
American University @ Colgate +12.5 131.6 86% 66–64 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University +7.1 129.6 76% 79–82 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +4.4 127.7 62% 41–54 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider +1.2 149.5 54% 78–88 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's +0.8 143.4 52% 65–72 ✓
Siena @ Fairfield +15.3 140.5 90% 64–88 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +16.6 143.1 90% 64–80 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris -2.3 147.3 41% 73–71 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's +1.5 121.7 55% 60–69 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -1.7 141.7 44% 71–59 ✓
Wright State @ Oakland +6.8 159.6 76% 96–75 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee -2.3 154.3 40% 88–96 ✗
Temple @ Wichita State +5.7 144.9 73% 72–66 ✗
UAB @ Tulane +2.3 159.7 62% 78–67 ✗
Ohio State @ Michigan State +8.5 139.9 78% 60–57 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +5.1 137.8 72% 69–73 ✓
Xavier @ Marquette +10.3 151.5 83% 64–88 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska +7.3 146.8 76% 55–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.