And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–16 on winners spread MAE 8.3 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rutgers @ Purdue +15.9 140.3 89% 68–96 ✓
SMU @ Florida Atlantic +4.7 151.2 69% 70–80 ✓
Radford @ Gardner-Webb +4.8 143.5 70% 90–74 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary -9.9 140.4 17% 81–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +3.9 132.9 67% 61–80 ✓
Hampton @ Campbell +8.5 145.2 82% 72–68 ✗
Elon @ Northeastern +6.5 144.9 76% 58–61 ✓
Drexel @ Hofstra +4.0 134.1 69% 57–69 ✓
Charleston @ Delaware +1.5 146.2 57% 90–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Long Island University -3.3 144.5 36% 64–76 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +3.9 151.7 66% 91–99 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner -1.0 129.4 45% 73–72 ✓
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +11.7 133.1 87% 60–71 ✓
Wright State @ Detroit Mercy -11.5 161.2 15% 93–78 ✓
Oakland @ Robert Morris -7.5 150.9 23% 63–43 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky +2.4 146.3 62% 73–75 ✓
App State @ Old Dominion -8.5 142.0 20% 82–67 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +9.9 140.2 86% 78–83 ✓
Vermont @ UAlbany -5.6 142.7 24% 94–80 ✓
Queens University @ Stetson +6.6 154.5 76% 83–75 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.1 151.2 64% 74–67 ✗
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky +5.0 152.0 72% 72–75 ✓
Liberty @ Florida International -7.2 141.4 25% 71–76 ✗
Ohio State @ Minnesota +2.9 141.9 64% 79–88 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State -8.6 144.3 21% 83–61 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +4.2 141.0 69% 83–64 ✗
Texas State @ Georgia Southern -1.6 137.7 42% 76–84 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha +2.5 149.5 65% 70–71 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota -2.6 148.2 39% 82–78 ✓
Denver @ South Dakota State +5.1 159.1 71% 70–97 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota State -1.3 141.3 45% 50–64 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +7.2 150.2 77% 85–90 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +11.2 142.7 88% 59–70 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -3.3 144.1 33% 74–77 ✗
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian +0.2 135.9 51% 65–71 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +7.3 147.7 78% 62–76 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona -6.5 150.8 30% 71–78 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech -2.0 134.5 40% 78–77 ✓
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -1.7 131.2 42% 78–57 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -8.6 145.9 18% 106–82 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State +3.6 131.9 65% 73–78 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -7.2 142.8 28% 59–66 ✗
Washington @ Arizona State -1.4 150.5 46% 84–82 ✓
Michigan @ Northwestern +7.9 144.8 80% 62–76 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -15.4 155.7 13% 86–65 ✓
Troy @ Arkansas State +1.2 154.9 56% 71–79 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP -5.3 137.5 30% 65–59 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -1.4 137.2 43% 79–58 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +1.7 143.6 58% 67–72 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana +11.5 138.7 87% 61–68 ✓
Oregon State @ California +5.4 141.7 73% 73–81 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Seattle U +5.6 140.5 74% 49–69 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge +1.9 143.1 60% 66–65 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +8.7 145.1 81% 66–79 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton +9.1 133.7 80% 50–68 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside -2.0 140.2 42% 77–65 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona +12.5 152.2 85% 77–74 ✗
Oregon @ Stanford +1.0 147.8 53% 78–65 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +8.3 145.1 82% 55–65 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +11.6 142.1 87% 69–81 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +6.8 136.1 78% 70–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.