Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -275 SMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +10 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -3.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -6.4 (+3.6) | 152.5 (-2.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -4.7 (+5.3) | 151.2 (-1.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -4.8 (+5.2) | 153.2 (-3.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -4.0 (+6.0) | 152.5 (-2.5) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#30) | 12.4 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#44) | 1.44 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.36 (#43) | 2.07 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#27) | 0.562 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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