Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1600 RUTG +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +28 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -18.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.8 (+12.2) | 147.5 (+16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -15.9 (+12.1) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -15.1 (+12.9) | 140.3 (+23.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -15.6 (+12.4) | 146.8 (+17.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 65 RUTG |
| Mar 5, 2025 | PUR 100 – 71 RUTG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PUR 68 – 50 RUTG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PUR 68 – 60 RUTG |
| Mar 10, 2023 | PUR 70 – 65 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 22.0 (#3) | 6.8 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#1) | 1.38 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.46 (#1) | 1.77 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#1) | 0.546 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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