Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
| Money | PUR -235 RUTG +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -3.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.7 (-1.7) | 127.6 (+7.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.4 (+0.6) | 127.6 (+7.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.4 (+0.6) | 129.1 (+5.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.4 (-0.4) | 127.3 (+7.7) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | PUR 81 – 65 RUTG |
| Mar 5, 2025 | PUR 100 – 71 RUTG |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PUR 68 – 50 RUTG |
| Feb 23, 2024 | PUR 96 – 68 RUTG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | PUR 68 – 60 RUTG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 61.1 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#10) | 12.3 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#4) | 1.49 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#5) | 1.91 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#6) | 0.541 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | RUTG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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