And I'm so pilled up that I rattle. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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71–39 on winners spread MAE 9.9 110 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Penn State +1.3 141.1 54% 73–52 ✗
Drake @ Bradley -6.2 138.9 26% 80–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.0 138.3 23% 90–81 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.3 134.4 33% 58–43 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Sacred Heart +2.2 158.3 62% 64–70 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis +3.4 142.4 67% 67–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.5 140.8 61% 71–73 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -3.7 132.4 33% 75–59 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +3.3 143.6 66% 77–65 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion +10.9 139.1 84% 61–67 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -2.6 146.2 38% 64–57 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron +5.5 152.6 73% 83–71 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +9.7 140.6 85% 55–80 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona -7.4 146.1 23% 92–62 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -11.4 139.6 15% 69–74 ✗
Louisiana @ Little Rock +1.4 146.4 57% 66–61 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +10.1 143.9 82% 57–101 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss -0.1 140.5 51% 69–60 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +1.0 142.1 57% 74–78 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tarleton State +0.1 134.5 47% 78–51 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +6.9 137.5 80% 49–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +17.2 129.1 91% 52–60 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.6 142.3 60% 70–56 ✗
Nevada @ Utah State +7.1 143.5 75% 72–75 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama +0.8 145.9 51% 84–81 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -6.4 135.6 24% 57–63 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +8.8 139.0 83% 58–84 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +3.7 132.7 65% 67–68 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside +0.0 137.3 46% 72–68 ✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +9.1 150.1 85% 76–78 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana -4.7 142.4 29% 73–57 ✓
Texas @ Texas Tech +2.9 139.8 64% 59–68 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn -2.1 147.7 41% 72–77 ✗
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +0.9 138.4 48% 73–67 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul +0.5 135.6 52% 68–60 ✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +4.6 145.7 72% 77–84 ✓
Liberty @ Bellarmine -1.1 132.0 45% 94–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UMass Lowell -0.2 135.1 50% 62–64 ✗
South Carolina @ Georgia +6.0 159.7 73% 91–70 ✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina -5.0 152.9 30% 61–85 ✗
Central Michigan @ Ball State +10.2 149.9 87% 91–97 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +3.9 139.5 64% 57–91 ✓
Montana @ Idaho State -2.6 131.6 42% 59–58 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin -0.8 139.1 46% 74–69 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +6.5 158.3 76% 75–83 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +3.8 148.2 66% 68–85 ✓
Binghamton @ Hartford +6.0 133.2 74% 60–77 ✓
Presbyterian @ Hampton +1.9 136.5 61% 65–67 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +5.4 143.5 74% 78–71 ✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State -9.2 133.7 17% 57–63 ✗
Washington @ Arizona +14.7 143.9 88% 74–75 ✓
VCU @ Davidson +0.9 134.5 53% 57–65 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +12.1 131.0 87% 58–66 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -4.0 148.4 35% 90–94 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +11.5 144.9 85% 58–79 ✓
North Texas @ Marshall +3.8 142.3 68% 72–73 ✓
Buffalo @ Ohio +2.5 157.1 61% 86–66 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +0.3 132.2 51% 73–65 ✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State -8.4 149.0 21% 72–70 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +5.9 135.7 74% 62–80 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +4.3 141.2 68% 94–90 ✗
Boston University @ Army +7.9 143.9 79% 75–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -3.8 138.5 35% 66–73 ✗
App State @ Georgia Southern +0.7 137.2 50% 57–65 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt -3.0 138.4 37% 70–75 ✗
Kansas State @ West Virginia +16.1 143.6 89% 43–65 ✓
Florida State @ North Carolina +2.0 152.7 58% 70–78 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +10.0 137.4 84% 46–84 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +6.6 136.6 74% 58–62 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +4.1 135.0 66% 60–65 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +8.8 154.1 81% 69–75 ✓
Oregon @ California -7.2 133.4 24% 74–63 ✓
Air Force @ Colorado State +18.8 137.8 90% 49–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +3.5 148.7 64% 61–79 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +0.5 141.1 53% 71–67 ✗
Belmont @ Morehead State -1.8 135.6 43% 82–89 ✗
UAB @ UTSA -1.3 144.7 39% 79–96 ✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego -3.2 147.2 37% 90–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State +1.7 132.2 59% 85–74 ✗
La Salle @ George Mason +5.1 143.0 73% 54–89 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota +2.3 137.7 61% 71–80 ✓
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -0.2 145.8 52% 64–51 ✓
Creighton @ Xavier -1.4 147.0 44% 69–77 ✗
NJIT @ UAlbany +2.6 134.8 61% 66–76 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +9.5 158.7 84% 81–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois +8.5 141.7 81% 73–68 ✗
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville State +5.8 144.7 75% 67–75 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy -3.6 131.8 34% 76–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ UT Arlington +2.5 139.8 62% 56–64 ✓
Louisiana @ Little Rock +1.3 144.6 56% 59–69 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +9.6 128.2 81% 57–61 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Southern Miss +1.2 136.2 53% 73–66 ✗
Western Michigan @ Toledo +15.7 146.1 89% 44–91 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal Poly -5.8 137.0 25% 68–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar -8.7 146.8 18% 83–88 ✗
Alcorn State @ Southern +6.2 136.6 74% 75–89 ✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State -9.9 137.6 17% 86–76 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M -6.1 132.9 24% 55–54 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -3.8 144.4 34% 64–59 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Loyola Chicago +17.2 128.2 90% 58–65 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +3.7 138.8 66% 80–77 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.4 141.9 61% 94–87 ✗
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -3.3 133.4 33% 58–70 ✗
Louisville @ Duke +5.1 140.8 71% 80–73 ✗
Omaha @ Denver -0.9 144.5 40% 80–76 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville -0.6 142.1 47% 69–63 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Central Arkansas -15.3 144.8 12% 82–84 ✗
Charlotte @ UTEP +5.5 130.5 70% 47–70 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State -1.9 138.4 39% 76–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Stanford +7.4 136.5 76% 73–62 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.