Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -3300 SIU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -21.8 (-14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -15.2 (-8.2) | 125.1 (-2.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -17.2 (-10.2) | 128.2 (-5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -17.7 (-10.7) | 128.1 (-5.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -17.8 (-10.8) | 128.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | LUC 44 – 39 SIU |
| Jan 26, 2022 | LUC 59 – 47 SIU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | LUC 73 – 49 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 60 – 52 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#13) | -4.0 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#31) | -0.49 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#26) | -1.00 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#33) | 0.458 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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