Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +5 | 83 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -7.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-42.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -7.0 (+2.0) | 117.3 (-34.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -7.6 (+2.6) | 128.1 (-45.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -7.8 (+2.8) | 127.7 (-44.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -6.9 (+1.9) | 118.5 (-35.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 26, 2022 | LUC 59 – 47 SIU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | LUC 73 – 49 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 60 – 52 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | 12.8 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#206) | 2.36 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#197) | 2.83 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#214) | 0.589 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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