Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
| Money | LUC -900 SIU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +12 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -14.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -14.8 (-2.8) | 127.9 (-21.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.2 (-0.2) | 133.2 (-27.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -12.8 (-0.8) | 133.2 (-27.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -12.8 (-0.8) | 131.7 (-25.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | LUC 44 – 39 SIU |
| Mar 5, 2021 | LUC 73 – 49 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 60 – 52 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#22) | 1.8 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#33) | -0.41 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#38) | -0.34 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#44) | 0.466 (#224) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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