Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -2000 SIU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +24 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -16.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -13.5 (+10.5) | 123.3 (-1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -13.9 (+10.1) | 127.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -14.0 (+10.0) | 127.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -14.4 (+9.6) | 126.1 (-4.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | LUC 44 – 39 SIU |
| Jan 26, 2022 | LUC 59 – 47 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 SIU |
| Feb 27, 2021 | LUC 60 – 52 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-5 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.4 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#20) | -2.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#36) | -0.39 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#32) | -0.84 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#33) | 0.474 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 5.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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