Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–16 on winners spread MAE 9.2 51 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Siena +9.9 132.4 83% 56–64 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +0.9 139.5 53% 75–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Nebraska -3.1 144.5 35% 74–78 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville -6.7 141.7 23% 63–72 ✗
Drake @ Bradley -6.3 141.1 26% 61–67 ✗
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -3.7 148.9 32% 105–101 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Kentucky +12.1 154.1 88% 84–89 ✓
Georgia State @ South Alabama +0.6 148.7 50% 82–73 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Old Dominion +10.8 138.0 84% 60–73 ✓
Furman @ Wofford -0.8 141.7 44% 73–74 ✗
UC San Diego @ UC Irvine +10.8 141.1 87% 64–75 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas -3.7 144.0 31% 58–71 ✗
USC @ Utah -4.6 140.1 31% 61–71 ✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's +9.9 130.8 85% 78–65 ✗
Coppin State @ Delaware State -6.7 155.8 23% 81–68 ✓
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina A&T +4.3 140.6 64% 53–55 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +1.4 143.8 59% 64–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Tarleton State -2.9 131.6 37% 55–64 ✗
Houston Christian @ McNeese +0.0 154.2 48% 58–85 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +8.8 137.4 82% 77–89 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -16.1 133.6 13% 68–54 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +2.4 148.2 63% 74–77 ✓
Murray State @ Tennessee Tech -9.3 142.8 19% 61–71 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -1.9 131.0 38% 81–71 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga +18.5 161.2 90% 69–86 ✓
Saint Mary's @ BYU +9.4 133.5 81% 51–65 ✓
San Francisco @ Pacific +1.5 137.4 60% 69–76 ✓
UCLA @ Colorado +5.7 137.1 73% 61–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -2.1 136.4 40% 52–68 ✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +8.7 149.2 81% 76–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +10.2 140.4 86% 90–87 ✗
Villanova @ Butler -8.7 133.7 19% 61–73 ✗
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +1.8 136.7 60% 72–64 ✗
Memphis @ Cincinnati -2.3 138.3 42% 80–74 ✓
Florida A&M @ South Carolina State -6.8 132.1 21% 63–58 ✓
Michigan State @ Maryland +6.3 137.3 74% 55–73 ✓
UAlbany @ Hartford +1.7 130.6 63% 77–83 ✓
Boston University @ Army +6.0 142.5 73% 55–57 ✓
Charlotte @ UTEP +7.8 129.1 76% 62–77 ✓
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +16.7 150.1 89% 58–91 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho -8.0 139.4 19% 71–61 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +2.9 159.5 63% 73–57 ✗
South Florida @ Houston +17.8 136.4 91% 52–98 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +6.8 138.4 77% 58–66 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +2.3 142.4 62% 68–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +1.7 131.7 60% 67–76 ✓
Pittsburgh @ NC State +4.8 143.3 70% 62–65 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota +2.6 139.8 64% 89–77 ✗
Coppin State @ Delaware State -6.8 154.5 23% 94–74 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +8.9 157.7 82% 59–95 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh -2.0 151.3 42% 71–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.