Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +120 UCSB -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +16 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -2.1 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.1 (+18.1) | 136.4 (-16.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -0.9 (+16.9) | 132.0 (-12.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.5 (+17.5) | 136.3 (-16.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.6 (+17.6) | 135.1 (-15.1) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 5-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#106) | 9.3 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#175) | 1.82 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#153) | 1.99 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#206) | 0.613 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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