Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | KU +188 BAY -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +13 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -7.3 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.7 (+16.7) | 144.0 (-15.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.6 (+16.6) | 140.6 (-11.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -1.3 (+14.3) | 143.8 (-14.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.3 (+16.3) | 143.3 (-14.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | KU 80 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BAY 81 – 70 KU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BAY 82 – 74 KU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KU 64 – 61 BAY |
| Feb 18, 2023 | KU 87 – 71 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 28-2 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-1 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-1 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#24) | 23.4 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#11) | 5.32 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#20) | 7.13 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#20) | 0.643 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 43.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 25.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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