Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PAC +110 SF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SF -1.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -1.5 (+5.5) | 137.4 (+7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -0.2 (+6.8) | 136.4 (+8.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -0.8 (+6.2) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -0.9 (+6.1) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SF 72 – 61 PAC |
| Feb 1, 2026 | SF 87 – 82 PAC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SF 71 – 58 PAC |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SF 89 – 81 PAC |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SF 79 – 73 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 6-7 | 4-9 |
| Home | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#142) | 5.0 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#104) | 0.35 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#115) | 0.46 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#113) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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