Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | MD -138 MSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MD -6.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -6.3 (+11.7) | 137.3 (-9.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -4.9 (+13.1) | 134.8 (-6.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -5.7 (+12.3) | 136.1 (-8.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -6.5 (+11.5) | 137.9 (-9.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MSU 91 – 48 MD |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MSU 58 – 55 MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MSU 63 – 54 MD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | MSU 61 – 59 MD |
| Feb 8, 2023 | MSU 63 – 58 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#33) | 7.9 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#32) | 1.98 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#26) | 2.85 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#44) | 0.526 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.