Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | IDHO +550 MTST -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -10.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.0 (-2.0) | 139.4 (-7.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -8.5 (-1.5) | 138.8 (-6.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -9.5 (-0.5) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.7 (-1.3) | 139.2 (-7.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-21 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-9 | 5-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -17.1 (#343) | -4.1 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.79 (#346) | -0.79 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.98 (#346) | -1.11 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#345) | 0.466 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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