Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -250 PITT +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -4.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.8 (-1.8) | 143.3 (-16.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.4 (-0.4) | 139.1 (-12.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -4.5 (-1.5) | 143.4 (-16.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.3 (-2.3) | 143.3 (-16.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | NCSU 98 – 88 PITT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NCSU 81 – 72 PITT |
| Mar 6, 2025 | NCSU 71 – 63 PITT |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PITT 81 – 73 NCSU |
| Feb 8, 2024 | PITT 67 – 64 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 10-12 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#70) | 6.6 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#89) | 0.81 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#94) | 1.29 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#129) | 0.496 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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