Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SDAK +140 NDSU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +12 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | SDAK -3.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -2.6 (-14.6) | 139.8 (+26.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -2.1 (-14.1) | 136.7 (+29.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -2.7 (-14.7) | 142.6 (+23.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -2.5 (-14.5) | 142.0 (+24.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 7-2 | 6-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#161) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#211) | -0.73 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#217) | -0.96 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#188) | 0.481 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 80.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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