Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +600 VILL -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -11.0 (+23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.7 (+20.7) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.3 (+20.3) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -8.0 (+20.0) | 133.1 (+0.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.2 (+20.2) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VILL 82 – 73 BTLR |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VILL 85 – 67 BTLR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | VILL 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Jan 1, 2025 | VILL 73 – 65 BTLR |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VILL 72 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-0 |
| Away | 1-9 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#129) | 16.1 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#116) | 2.99 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#98) | 3.60 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#208) | 0.621 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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