Betting Lines
| Spread | JKST -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +14 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | JKST -24.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JKST -16.1 (+2.1) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JKST -13.0 (-1.0) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JKST -18.1 (+4.1) | 136.1 (-14.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JKST -17.9 (+3.9) | 131.6 (-9.6) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | JKST 85 – 77 MVSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | JKST 97 – 81 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | JKST 66 – 62 MVSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | JKST 92 – 44 MVSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | JKST 68 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-22 | 12-6 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 11-0 |
| Home | 1-5 | 6-0 |
| Away | 1-16 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 56.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 87.4 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -34.4 (#349) | -7.4 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.77 (#345) | -0.35 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.73 (#348) | -1.00 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#335) | 0.489 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 17.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 62.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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