Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +240 MOST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -7.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -6.7 (+15.7) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 23% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -5.6 (+14.6) | 136.6 (-1.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -6.1 (+15.1) | 140.5 (-5.5) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -7.9 (+16.9) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | MOST 71 – 54 EVAN |
| Dec 29, 2024 | EVAN 57 – 40 MOST |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MOST 74 – 64 EVAN |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MOST 90 – 78 EVAN |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MOST 66 – 60 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 17-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#232) | 6.4 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#236) | 1.24 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#249) | 1.23 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#229) | 0.544 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 26.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 19.3% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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