Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -163 BUCK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -3.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.3 (+10.7) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.6 (+9.4) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.5 (+10.5) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.6 (+10.4) | 143.6 (+5.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Game Analysis
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