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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–2 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nevada
@
Utah State
|
+7.1 | 144.0 | 75% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Western Kentucky
|
+17.8 | 149.0 | 90% | 59–71 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Central Arkansas
|
-9.1 | 157.7 | 18% | 79–66 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+10.6 | 136.2 | 83% | 55–52 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Virginia
|
+13.6 | 130.6 | 86% | 51–62 | ✓ |
Quinnipiac
@
Marist
|
+2.1 | 131.9 | 62% | 52–65 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Saint Louis
|
+8.0 | 145.3 | 79% | 57–78 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Richmond
|
+13.4 | 155.7 | 88% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Radford
|
+7.5 | 135.9 | 78% | 52–67 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Winthrop
|
+13.2 | 142.2 | 88% | 54–83 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.