Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1600 MIA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +11 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -16.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -13.6 (-2.6) | 130.6 (-17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -13.1 (-2.1) | 120.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -14.7 (-3.7) | 127.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -12.7 (-1.7) | 130.0 (-17.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | UVA 84 – 62 MIA |
| Feb 21, 2026 | UVA 86 – 83 MIA |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UVA 82 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | UVA 60 – 38 MIA |
| Dec 21, 2022 | MIA 66 – 64 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-15 |
| Home | 10-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#23) | 0.1 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#31) | -0.06 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.21 (#19) | -0.05 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#34) | 0.456 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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