Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | USU -300 NEV +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | USU -8.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -7.1 (+13.9) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.0 (+15.0) | 142.7 (+10.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.9 (+14.1) | 145.0 (+8.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.0 (+14.0) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 79 – 66 NEV |
| Feb 22, 2026 | NEV 80 – 77 USU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | USU 71 – 62 NEV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | USU 90 – 69 NEV |
| Jan 1, 2025 | USU 69 – 64 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 10-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#43) | 4.9 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#65) | 0.86 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#76) | 0.98 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#52) | 0.533 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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