Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WIN -1000 HPU +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +29 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -15.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -13.2 (+15.8) | 142.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -11.4 (+17.6) | 138.4 (-1.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.8 (+16.2) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -13.6 (+15.4) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 6-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-5 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#87) | -6.4 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#52) | -1.76 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#41) | -2.00 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#36) | 0.444 (#268) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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