Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -200 FRES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -5.7 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.7 (-2.7) | 132.7 (+2.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -2.9 (-1.9) | 129.0 (+6.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.8 (-2.8) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -3.9 (-2.9) | 133.4 (+1.6) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#184) | -4.5 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#184) | 0.13 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#194) | -0.04 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#197) | 0.502 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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