Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USD +188 PEPP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +6 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -5.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.2 (-2.8) | 147.2 (+26.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -4.2 (-1.8) | 147.4 (+26.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -4.3 (-1.7) | 150.4 (+23.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -3.6 (-2.4) | 148.3 (+25.7) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | USD 92 – 88 PEPP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USD 83 – 63 PEPP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | PEPP 88 – 81 USD |
| Jan 31, 2025 | PEPP 98 – 90 USD |
| Mar 9, 2024 | USD 57 – 52 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-11 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 2-7 | 7-6 |
| Home | 0-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#262) | 2.5 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#207) | 0.63 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#213) | 0.60 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#214) | 0.528 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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