Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -120 UNT +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -2.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -2.7 (-1.7) | 138.3 (+6.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -3.8 (-2.8) | 142.3 (+2.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.4 (-3.4) | 142.4 (+2.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -4.1 (-3.1) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2022 | UNT 69 – 65 MRSH |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UNT 77 – 65 MRSH |
Game Analysis
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