Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -200 LOU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -4.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.1 (-12.1) | 140.8 (+12.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -3.8 (-10.8) | 138.3 (+14.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.7 (-10.7) | 140.4 (+12.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.1 (-12.1) | 140.7 (+12.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | DUKE 83 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DUKE 84 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 16, 2025 | DUKE 73 – 62 LOU |
| Dec 8, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 65 LOU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 59 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-2 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 10.7 (#45) | 8.9 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#70) | 2.17 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#60) | 2.58 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#86) | 0.596 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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