Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UNC +130 FSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -1.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.0 (+6.0) | 152.7 (-4.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.0 (+8.0) | 147.2 (+0.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -2.1 (+5.9) | 152.4 (-4.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.7 (+6.3) | 153.5 (-5.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#36) | 15.5 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#52) | 2.86 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#46) | 3.54 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#44) | 0.615 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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