Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1800 WMU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +47 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -18.6 (+28.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -15.7 (+31.3) | 146.1 (-11.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -14.6 (+32.4) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -17.5 (+29.5) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -16.6 (+30.4) | 146.0 (-11.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 4-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 2-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#66) | -7.6 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#72) | -1.78 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#72) | -2.01 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#50) | 0.431 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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