Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | AUB +350 TENN -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -4.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.1 (+7.1) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -1.9 (+6.9) | 144.4 (+4.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -2.8 (+7.8) | 147.0 (+2.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -2.1 (+7.1) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TENN 72 – 62 AUB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | TENN 77 – 69 AUB |
| Mar 15, 2025 | TENN 70 – 65 AUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | AUB 53 – 51 TENN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TENN 92 – 84 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#72) | 15.1 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#85) | 2.22 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#77) | 2.79 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#111) | 0.573 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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