Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -125 BUF +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +20 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -0.4 (-20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -2.5 (-22.5) | 157.1 (-5.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.3 (-20.3) | 156.9 (-4.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -2.1 (-22.1) | 159.1 (-7.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -2.1 (-22.1) | 157.9 (-5.9) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-8 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-5 |
| Home | 8-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#91) | 7.8 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#116) | 0.12 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#114) | 0.58 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#115) | 0.497 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 14.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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