Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | IDHO +700 MTST -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDHO +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -12.7 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.4 (+16.4) | 139.6 (+3.4) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -10.6 (+15.6) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -11.8 (+16.8) | 140.6 (+2.4) | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -10.8 (+15.8) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | IDHO 78 – 74 MTST |
| Feb 6, 2026 | MTST 73 – 66 IDHO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | IDHO 92 – 89 MTST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | MTST 75 – 60 IDHO |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDHO 69 – 64 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-21 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-6 |
| Home | 1-9 | 5-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -18.0 (#343) | -2.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.89 (#349) | -0.49 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.65 (#349) | -0.77 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.342 (#346) | 0.492 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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