Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +333 SUU -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SUU +30 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | SUU -8.5 (-21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -7.4 (-22.6) | 146.1 (+7.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -7.7 (-22.3) | 142.4 (+11.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -8.7 (-21.3) | 146.0 (+8.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -8.8 (-21.2) | 147.3 (+6.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | NAU 65 – 57 SUU |
| Dec 21, 2024 | NAU 83 – 75 SUU |
| Dec 16, 2023 | NAU 76 – 74 SUU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | SUU 106 – 101 NAU |
| Feb 22, 2022 | SUU 79 – 48 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 20-4 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 12-2 |
| Home | 1-7 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#325) | -0.6 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#324) | 0.75 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#323) | 0.57 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#236) | 0.545 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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