Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | VT -600 WAKE +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +38 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | VT -10.0 (+28.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.0 (+28.0) | 137.4 (-7.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -7.7 (+30.3) | 134.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -10.6 (+27.4) | 135.2 (-5.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.2 (+27.8) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#54) | 2.4 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#43) | -0.12 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#45) | -0.10 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#41) | 0.457 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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