Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USA +140 GAST -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +3 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -0.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.8 (-3.8) | 145.9 (+19.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.3 (-3.3) | 147.8 (+17.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.3 (-3.3) | 148.4 (+16.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.5 (-3.5) | 148.7 (+16.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | USA 69 – 67 GAST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | USA 77 – 51 GAST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GAST 90 – 76 USA |
| Dec 31, 2022 | GAST 68 – 58 USA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | GAST 69 – 62 USA |
Game Analysis
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