Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -110 ELON +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -5.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -3.7 (-6.7) | 138.8 (+18.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.5 (-6.5) | 138.7 (+18.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.6 (-5.6) | 140.4 (+16.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.9 (-5.9) | 139.9 (+17.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 57 ELON |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 54 ELON |
| Feb 16, 2025 | ELON 81 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ELON 73 – 72 UNCW |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UNCW 82 – 70 ELON |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-10 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 1-6 | 4-7 |
| Home | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#199) | -5.5 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#238) | -0.73 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#221) | -0.99 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#265) | 0.472 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | ELON |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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